Demo data, for illustration. The watchlist and the exposure tier beside each supplier were set up for this demonstration; they are not any company’s own classification. The signals come from public sources.
Overall status
Amber since 16 Oct 2026, 15:41 UTC: 13 days.
28 checks in the 7 days: 28 amber.
What changed in the last 7 days
Nothing moved in the 7 days to 30 Oct. 28 checks ran; none changed a supplier’s level, a pillar or the overall status.
Top 3 actions
No actions this week. No supplier has a possible sanctions match, and none reached a High or Critical event level. Standing country exposure is left out of actions on purpose; it is below.
Standing exposure
9 of 24 watchlist suppliers sit in 5 countries with a standing risk floor. It comes from where a supplier operates, not from anything that happened this week, and on its own it never turns the board amber or red.
- MEDIUMChina5 suppliers
US-China trade war, Taiwan risk, export controls on tech
Huizhou BYD Electronic (EMS, Critical tier) · Smoore (EMS, Critical tier) · EVE Energy (Batteries, High tier) · IP Sun (Printing Substrates, Medium tier) · Porton (Nicotine, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMFinland1 supplier
NATO frontline state, border with Russia
Stora Enso (Printing Substrates, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMIndia1 supplier
Border tensions with China and Pakistan
ITC (Nicotine, High tier)
- MEDIUMSouth Africa1 supplier
Economic instability, infrastructure challenges, energy crisis
Sappi (Printing Substrates, Medium tier)
- MEDIUMSouth Korea1 supplier
North Korea proximity, regional military tensions
Tae Young Filters (Filter Materials, Medium tier)
World signals
Conditions outside any single supplier: commodity prices, shipping chokepoints, river levels and natural hazards, with the watchlist suppliers each one touches.
What is driving it
- Rhine at Maxau 300 cm, below the 335 cm mark
- EU natural gas 131% above Sep 2025
- Red earthquake alert in China
- Rhine at Kaub 45 cm, below the 80 cm mark
- Brent crude at $123.10 a barrel, 37% above its one-year median
- Aluminium 23% above Sep 2025
- Orange tropical cyclone alert in India
- Orange drought alert in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more)
- Orange drought alert in USA (+10 more)
Commodities
- EU natural gasseverity severe25.49 USD/MMBtu+131.7%
EU natural gas was $25.49 per MMBtu in Sep 2026, 131% above Sep 2025; it feeds into the energy bill of pulp and paper mills at 5 watchlist suppliers.
Touches Stora Enso, IP Sun, Sappi, SWM International, Delfort · as of 1 Sep
- Brent crudeseverity notable123.1 USD/bbl+37.1%
Brent crude was $123.10 a barrel on 27 Oct, 37% above its one-year median of $89.80 a barrel, after a -3.9% day (0.9x its usual daily move); it feeds into acetate tow, plastics, electronics and battery materials at 10 watchlist suppliers.
Touches Daicel, Eastman, Cerdia, Tae Young Filters, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy, Weener, Rosti, Jabil · as of 27 Oct
- Aluminiumseverity notable3,283 USD/t+23.7%
Aluminium was $3,283 a tonne in Sep 2026, 23% above Sep 2025; it feeds into foil and metallised packaging at AMCOR and GPI.
- Wood pulp (US producer prices)severity quiet223.0 index 1982=100+0.3%
Wood pulp (US producer prices) was 223.0 (index 1982=100) in Sep 2026, level with Sep 2025; it feeds into board, printing substrates and fine papers at 7 watchlist suppliers.
Touches AMCOR, GPI, Stora Enso, IP Sun, Sappi, SWM International, Delfort · as of 1 Sep
Rivers
- Rhine at Maxauseverity severe300 cm
The Rhine at Maxau reads 300 cm (normal 496 cm), below the 335 cm mark, where barges carry only a fraction of a normal load; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
- Rhine at Kaubseverity notable45 cm
The Rhine at Kaub reads 45 cm (normal 208 cm, forecast 38-57 cm over the next two days), below the 80 cm mark, where barges start sailing part-loaded; it is the route for AMCOR, Cerdia and CNT.
Natural hazards
- Earthquake in Chinaseverity severe7 M
Red alert for earthquake in China, 22 Oct, magnitude 7.0; 5 watchlist suppliers are based there.
Touches IP Sun, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 22 Oct
- Tropical cyclone ARNAB-26severity notable222.2 km/h
Orange alert for tropical cyclone ARNAB-26 in India, 26-28 Oct, winds up to 222 km/h; ITC is based there.
Touches ITC · as of 28 Oct
- Drought in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more)severity notable2,009,754 km2
Orange alert for drought in Austria, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland (+25 more), 21 Dec 2025 to 27 Oct 2026, across 2,009,754 km²; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches AMCOR, Cerdia, Delfort, CNT, Tenowo, Infineon, Weener, Rosti · as of 27 Oct
- Drought in USA (+10 more)severity notable1,012,801 km2
Orange alert for drought in USA (+10 more), 21 Apr to 27 Oct, across 1,012,801 km²; 5 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches GPI, Eastman, SWM International, Texas Instruments, Jabil · as of 27 Oct
- Tropical cyclone CHAMPI-26severity quiet296.3 km/h
Tropical cyclone CHAMPI-26 in China, Japan and South Korea (+2 more), 14-25 Oct: GDACS rated it red at its peak and green in its latest update; 8 watchlist suppliers are based in the affected countries.
Touches IP Sun, Daicel, Tae Young Filters, Fuji, Porton, Huizhou BYD Electronic, Smoore, EVE Energy · as of 25 Oct